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6 月
| 計畫名稱： 農作物之致災指標建置及災損脆弱度分析─建置重要經濟果樹致災臨界條件及因應氣候變遷之作物栽培曆 |
| 計畫主持人： 陳宗禮 |
| 共同計畫主持人： |
| 計畫編號： 105農科-17.1.1-科-a3(Z) |
| 計畫主管機構： 行政院農業委員會 |
| 計畫執行機構： 國立中興大學 |
| 全程計畫年： 2016 |
| 關鍵字： 農業氣象；訓練；研討會；氣象災害；水稻；玉米；大豆；甘藷；栽培作業曆；災害防治；Disaster prevention；Fruit tree；Cultivation calendar；Database；Agroforestry losses；Unmanned Aerial Vehicle；Diaster Hotspots ；agro-meteorology；training；workshop；Weather disaster；Rice；Maize；Soy bean；Sweet potato；Cultivation calendar；Disaster prevention；Fruit tree；Cultivation calendar；Database；Agroforestry losses；Unmanned Aerial Vehicle；Diaster Hotspots |
| 摘要： 建構農業氣象研究人員培訓體系 本計畫配合農委會之農業研究單位辦理農林氣象災害風險指標建置及災害調適之研究及設備更新辦理下列三項業務： 研議農業氣象人員配訓計畫與內容，並訂出兩階段之訓練與講習課程。 辦理農業氣象人員第一階段之基礎訓練，並出版訓練教材。 邀請國外專家與國內專家，每年辦理一個工作坊級的研討會。 本年度預計培訓國內從事農業氣象研究與觀測人員50人日次，有效提昇國內農業氣象業務水準，以作為施政之輔助工具，同時辦理工作坊級研討會一場。 建置主要食用作物氣象致災指標與栽培曆調整 本計畫擬以生產栽培面積廣大的水稻、玉米、毛豆、甘藷等食用作物為主，調查及彙整不同作物面臨缺水、淹水、風害、高溫、低溫等氣象災害的致災指標，包括不同生長發育期對不同災害類型的敏感程度、災害逆境的強度與時間、作物受損的等級、致災臨界條件以及災損的樣態與經濟損失等，調查及彙整後所建立的指標資料庫，可作為災害救助及推動農業作物保險之參考用。同時依據上述致災氣象條件，調整建立主要食用作物之栽培曆。 建置重要經濟果樹致災臨界條件及因應氣候變遷之作物栽培曆 近年來由於氣候變遷、全球暖化，極端氣候增加，氣溫急遽上升、下降造成酷熱酷寒，現有主要栽培果樹品種因無法忍受氣候之衝擊而使生產量逐年下降，並造成植株死亡，主要災損果樹包括：高接梨、芒果、甜柿、葡萄、木瓜、桶柑、釋迦、文旦柚、蓮霧、鳳梨、番石榴及荔枝等。根據統計台灣近三年(101-103)葡萄、番石榴、芒果、木瓜、荔枝等五項果樹因天然災害被害面積高達12000公頃，損失難以估計，救助金額高達271億元。若能建立防災預警雲端資訊系統，預測可能發生之災害程度並提早預防，將可減少天然災害對果樹經濟作物所造成之大量損失。本計畫將整合歷年災損資料及災害氣候資料，分析其相關性，建立重要經濟果樹之災害別及致災氣象資料庫；並統整國內外相關文獻對應災害氣象資料與地理資訊，擬定防災栽培曆、建立果樹適地適種資料及研擬減災、防災技術；最後結合災害與致災氣象料庫及研擬減災、防災技術，作為防災對策擬定與啟動預警系統之依據。 農林業災損經濟及脆弱度分析 全球氣候變遷的嚴重性是明顯的，而且發生的頻率與強度都增加。這些變化影響農林業生產量與結構，加劇農業遭受異常氣象災害的損失。因應國際糧食價格上漲趨勢，如何制定一套糧食安全因應機制，讓國內糧食供應無缺、價格穩定；如何提供農業防災資訊降低農損程度，均為重要課題。自民國78年開始辦理農業天然災害抒困貸款。農委會並於民國80年發布實施「農業天然災害救助辦法」，嗣經多次修正，使法規更為完備。但是台灣的農業產業結構主要由小農組成，存在人力不足、市場不夠寬廣、財力不夠充沛等問題，自然面對氣候變遷衝擊的因應能力亦較不足。 政府面對天然災害處理方式已由過去的單純災後救災與重建，轉變為災前減災、防災與定出救災決策。農林業地理空間資訊系統的整合、展示、分析所有相關資料，例如地籍、氣象、水文和農業資料，可以清楚了解災後的災損時空分佈，有利於農業政策的規畫與輔導。近來先進的無人載具在小範圍到幾十平方公里的大範圍提供更廉價、安全而且更靈活的觀測平台。特別在颱風或暴雨後，災區往往被雲覆蓋一段時間。在雲層下方藉著無人載具的高解析度相機可以提供創新且精確的農林災情調查資料。 本計畫提供一個網路地理資訊平台於農林災損經濟和脆弱度分析。結合地理資訊、地籍資料、土地利用，農林資料等提供即時顯示的平台。有效且快速整合災區UAV資料於地理資訊系統。一旦大型災害發生，最新的災區影像，無論使用UAV或其他遙測平台都可以置入系統中以利了解農林災損的狀況。這個計畫將成功的提供創新的地理資訊整合平台於農林業災損經濟及脆弱度分析。 Establish the training system of agro-meteorologist Due to the [Establish the risks index and acclimation of agro-meteorologist damage] project demand, three work will be done in this project: 1. Design an agro-meteorologist two level training course. 2. Hold the training course, and publish the teaching materials 3. Hold a symposium every year. In 2016, a 50 trainees/day first level training course and a workshop will be done, to enhance to quality of agro-meteorology study and investigation. The assessment of weather disaster indexes and adjustment of cultivation calendar for major food crops The main objective of this project is to characteristic of disaster indexes in food crops which include rice, maize, soybeans and sweet potatoes upon meteorological disasters such as drought, flooding, wind damage, heat and cold stress. Analysis on the characteristic including the sensitivity of disasters, intensity and time of stress, the damage levels, critical conditions and phenotype of crops and economic loss during different developmental stage. It is important to build the index data bank to provide of the disasters relief and reference of crops insurance. Furthermore, base on the disaster criteria of weather conditions, the establishment of major food crops cultivation calendar will be identified. Construction of critical damage conditions for major ecnomic fruit trees and the cultivation calendars in response to climate change In recent years, the climate change and the global warming have increased the occurrence of extreme weather. The sharp rise and drop of temperature has caused extremely hot and cold weather. The current main cultivars of fruit trees which cannot stand the impact have shown decreases in fruit production and even caused tree death. The main suffered fruit tree include: pear, mango, persimmon, grape, papaya, tankan, sugar apple, pomelo, wax apple, pineapple, guava and lychee. According to the statistics, the damage area of grape, guava, mangoe, papaya, and lychee caused by natural disasters in Taiwan had reached 12000 ha during the past 3 years (101-103). The amount of aid cost NT$ 27.1 billion and the agriculture loss was incalculable. Establish a disaster alerting system may estimate the disaster and damage range and mitigate the economic loss in fruit industry caused by natural disasters. This project is to integrate the disaster damages and climate information in last few years, and analyze their relationship to establish a database of disaster events and disaster-causing weather conditions. Also, this project is going to review the relating literatures and combine with the weather and geographic information to develop the disaster-prevent cultivation calendars, disaster-reduce/prevent techniques and the information about suitable cultivating areas. Finally, the combination of the relating database and the disaster-reduce/prevent techniques may provide basis for the develop of disaster-reduce/prevent strategies and disaster early warning system. Economy and vulnerability analysis of agroforestry loss assessment The impacts of climate change are intensifying across the world, particularly on the structure and production of agroforestry. As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing, the damage to the crops is also getting serious. It is therefore a crucial and urgent task to establish a mechanism to secure the stable supply of food at reasonable cost, as well as to provide the information of disaster mitigation and prevention to reduce to loss of crops. Started from processing Natural Disaster Aid Loan for Agriculture in 1989, the Council of Agriculture (COA), Executive Yuan, Taiwan R.O.C, announced and put the \\\\\\\"Implementation Rules of Agricultural Natural Disaster Relief\\\\\\\" into effect in 1991. Several amendments were made in the next few years to make the rules more complete. The agricultural industrial structure of Taiwan, however, is mainly comprised of smallholders that are limited by manpower, market and financial supports. Consequently, its capability of adaptation to the impacts of climate change is insufficient. Experiences of loss assessments in the past few years indicate that interpretations and analysis of geospatial data not only provide key information for disaster emergency response and decision making, but also offer assistance in evacuation, disaster reduction and rescue missions. A web-based geospatial information system (GIS) dedicated to the application of agroforestry would serve as an ideal platform to integrate, analysis, display and distribute all related data, such as cadastral, meteorological, hydrological and agricultural data. Such a system would assist us to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and variation of agroforestry vulnerability, quickly and accurately assess the loss after a major disaster, as well as to provide key information for decision and policy making. Recent advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) provides a much cheaper, safer, and more flexible platform for deployment in a small area ranging from a few tens of square kilometers. Particularly after a major typhoon or storm event, the disaster area is usually covered by low clouds for quite a long period of time. The high-spatial-resolution photos acquired from the UAV flying under the low clouds would provide an innovative source of data for accurate assessment of loss in agroforestry. This project aims at providing a web-based GIS platform dedicated to economy and vulnerability analysis of agroforestry loss assessment. The cadastral data, land use/land cover data, agrometeorological data, along with all available forecasts, would be integrated with other GIS data and displayed in the platform in real time. A standard operation procedure of rapidly mapping the disaster areas with UAV will be established and evaluated. Once a major disaster is occurred, the most updated images of disaster areas, either from the UAV or other remote sensing platforms, will be fed into the system to assess the loss in agroforestry. Success of this project will provide an innovative and integrated platform to utilize the GIS data for economy and vulnerability analysis of agroforestry loss assessment. |