| 摘要： 建置重要經濟果樹致災臨界條件及因應氣候變遷之作物栽培曆 氣候變遷已造成台灣重要經濟果樹連年之重大損害，台灣梨、芒果、柿、葡萄、木瓜、桶柑、釋迦、文旦柚、蓮霧、鳳梨、番石榴、荔枝、紅龍果、香蕉、印度棗等果樹因遭遇天然災害造成的損失，估計有15萬公噸，金額高達40億餘元，顯示出加強果樹作物防、減災工作與策略研擬的必要性。 本計畫擬以重要經濟果樹為對象，統整歷年造成重大農損之天然災害資料，建立各果樹災害別資料庫；分析氣象資料與災害程度資料之相關性；測試果園即時氣象監測系統；同時建立各果樹之防災栽培曆；並蒐集整理各果樹之逆境生理指標。 前期計畫已完成各果樹之災害別資料庫，包含豪雨、颱風、寒害、霪雨等及其他環境逆境。前期計畫亦完成各果樹之防災栽培曆初稿以及若干果樹之多項逆境生理指標。 今年度之研究將增補其他果樹之風速與災害相關性分析並嘗試其他氣象因子與災損程度之分析；此外利用果園微氣候監測系統研究果園災害受害程度與微氣候之關係；防災栽培曆與逆境生理指標則持續進行修正與增補完備，並增加香蕉及印度棗栽培曆及防災栽培曆，使重要經濟果樹防災減災及預警系統資料更佳完備。期本計畫研究能在防災、減災、復災上提供有效之參考依據，及提供研究人員、農政單位及農民參考利用與精準預報及推播資訊。 重要經濟作物致災臨界指標驗證及災損脆弱度分析 近年來全球氣候變化越趨極端，導致氣象災害問題越趨嚴重，造成大規模農業生產損失，影響農民生計及糧食供給。本計畫擬以全臺栽培的水稻、玉米、大豆、紅豆、甘藷、落花生、小麥等主要食用作物為主，調查及彙整這些作物全年各地區的生長發育期、主要栽培管理事項、病蟲草害及其管理、氣象災害致災的生長發育敏感期、致災臨界指標與災害的防範措施等資料，強化及驗證重要經濟作物防災栽培曆內容與災害臨界指標。同時依據歷年來各地區氣象致災風險潛勢分析，調整主要食用作物生產期程與栽培區域，保障糧食生產安全。 建構農業氣象研究人員培訓體系 1. 辦理農業氣象人員訓練:培訓國內從事農業氣象研究與觀測人員75人日次，有效提昇國內農業氣 象業務水準，以作為施政之輔助工具。 2. 辦理工作坊或研討會:辦理工作坊級研討會一場，預計50-75人次參加。 3. 編撰紙本訓練手冊。 Construction of critical damage conditions for major ecnomic fruit trees and the cultivation calendars in response to climate change Climate change has caused severe damages on the major economical fruit trees in Taiwan. The loss in crop production and value of the fruit trees (included: pears, mangos, persimmons, grapes, papayas, Tankans, sugar apples, Wentan pomelos, wax apples, pineapples, guavas, litchis, banana, and Indian jujube) caused by natural disasters reached 100,000 m.t. and 3.7 billion NT$. This showed the importance of the work on disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as relating strategy evaluation. This project focused on the major economical fruit trees, and planned to collect and organize the disasters information, to establish a database of natural disasters of the fruit trees. The project also aimed to analyze the relation between weather and damage severity, test the system of real-time weather monitoring system, establish the disaster preventing culture calendar, and collect the stress physiological indices. Last year we had established the disaster database, including heavy rain, typhoon, chilling, continuous rain, and other environmental stresses of the fruit trees. We also completed the relation analysis between wind speed of typhoon and damage severity of several fruit trees. However, the relation was poor which might because of that typhoon make damage on fruit trees by several factors combining with the wind speed. The real-time orchard weather monitoring system had set up this year, as well as the on-line connection and program settings, and is going to start its duty in the following year. Through the project last year, we also complete the draft edition of the disaster preventing culture calendars of the major economical fruit trees, and also the stress physiological indices of several fruit trees. In the project this year, our researches will focus on the completion of the correlation analysis between wind speed and damage severity of the remaining fruit trees, and test the correlation by using other weather factors and the damage severity. The real-time orchard weather monitoring system will be utilized to do research on the relation of crop damage and orchard micro climate. The disaster preventing culture calendars and the stress physiological indices will continue editing and correcting.We hope that this project may provide effective information and abundant references on disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery for the growers, researchers, and agricultural extension personnel. |
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