農作物之致災指標建置及災損脆弱度分析

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計畫名稱: 農作物之致災指標建置及災損脆弱度分析
計畫主持人: 陳宗禮
共同計畫主持人:
計畫編號: 106農科-17.1.1-科-a3(Z)
計畫主管機構: 行政院農業委員會
計畫執行機構: 國立中興大學
全程計畫年: 2017
關鍵字: 氣象災害;水稻;玉米;大豆;甘藷;落花生;小麥;一般栽培作業曆;防災栽培曆;紅豆;災害防治;果樹;栽培曆;資料庫;農業氣象;訓練;研討會;Weather disaster;Rice;Maize;Soy bean;Sweet potato;Groundnut;Wheat;General cultivation calendar;Disaster prevention calenda;Adzuki bean;Disaster prevention;Fruit tree;Cultivation calendar;Database;agro-meteorology;training;workshop
摘要: 建置主要食用作物氣象致災指標與栽培曆調整 本計畫擬以生產栽培面積廣大的水稻、玉米、大豆、甘藷、落花生、紅豆、小麥等食用作物為主,調查及彙 整水稻、玉米、大豆、甘藷、落花生、紅豆、小麥等作物全年各地區的生長發育期、主要管理事項、肥培 管理、常見病蟲及其管理,建立及確認不同地區、期作水稻、玉米、大豆、甘藷、落花生、紅豆、小麥的一般栽培曆。同時蒐集水稻、玉米、大豆、甘藷、落花生、紅豆、小麥等食用作物面臨缺水、淹水、風害 、高溫、低溫等氣象災害致災的生長發育敏感期、致災臨界指標與災害的防範措施等資料,依據常見災害分析,建置及確認不同地區、期作之水稻、玉米、大 豆、甘藷、落花生、紅豆、小麥等食用作物的防災栽培曆。同時依據各地區、期作致災氣象條件脆弱度分析,提供主要食用作物栽培作業曆調整之建議。調查及彙整後所建立的指標資料庫,可作為災害救助及推動農業作物保險之參考用。 建置重要經濟果樹致災臨界條件及因應氣候變遷之作物栽培曆 氣候變遷已造成台灣重要經濟果樹連年之重大損害,104年台灣梨、芒果、柿、葡萄、木瓜、桶柑、釋迦、文旦柚、蓮霧、鳳梨、番石榴、荔枝等果樹因遭遇天然災害造成的損失,估計有10萬公噸,金額高達37億餘元,顯示出加強果樹作物防、減災工作與策略研擬的必要性。本計畫擬以重要經濟果樹為對象,統整歷年造成重大農損之天然災害資料,建立各果樹災害別資料庫;分析氣象資料與災害程度資料之相關性;測試果園即時氣象監測系統;同時建立各果樹之防災栽培曆;並蒐集整理各果樹之逆境生理指標。前期計畫已完成各果樹之災害別資料庫,包含豪雨、颱風、寒害、霪雨等及其他環境逆境;並完成颱風風速與若干果樹災害之相關性分析,然分析結果相關性不高,可能因颱風之危害是由多項因子所共同造成的結果。果園微氣候監測本年度完成架設與雲端連結及程式設定等,明年度將可順利運作。前期計畫亦完成各果樹之防災栽培曆初稿以及若干果樹之多項逆境生理指標。今年度之研究將增補其他果樹之風速與災害相關性分析、並嘗試其他氣象因子與災損程度之分析;此外利用果園微氣候監測系統研究果園災害受害程度與微氣候之關係;防災栽培曆與逆境生理指標則持續進行修正與增補完備。期本計畫之研究能在防災、減災、復災上提供有效之參考依據,並可供研究人員、農政單位及農民參考利用。 建構農業氣象研究人員培訓體系 本計畫配合農委會之農業研究單位辦理農林氣象災害風險指標建置及災害調適之研究及設備更新辦理下列三項業務: 研議農業氣象人員配訓計畫與內容,並訂出兩階段之訓練與講習課程。 辦理農業氣象人員第一階段之基礎訓練,並出版訓練教材。 邀請國外專家與國內專家,每年辦理一個工作坊級的研討會。 本年度預計培訓國內從事農業氣象研究與觀測人員50人日次,有效提昇國內農業氣象業務水準,以作為施政之輔助工具,同時辦理工作坊級研討會一場。 The assessment of weather disaster indexes and adjustment of cultivation calendar for major food crops In order to establish cultivation calendar of major food crops including rice, maize, soybean, sweet potato, groundnut, adzuki bean and wheat, major practices of cultivation and management of pest control were collected and organized into a guide line of cultivation according to timetable of growth development. The objective of this project was to confirm and characteristic of disaster indexes in food crops upon meteorological disasters such as drought, flooding, wind damage, heat and cold stress. Analysis on the characteristics including the sensitivity of disasters, intensity and time of stress, the damage levels, critical conditions, economic loss, protection, recovery and adjustment during different developmental stage. This showed the importance to build the index data bank to provide of the disasters relief and reference of crops insurance. Furthermore, base on the disaster criteria of weather conditions, the establishment of major food crops disaster prevention calendar will be identified. Construction of critical damage conditions for major ecnomic fruit trees and the cultivation calendars in response to climate change Climate change has caused severe damages on the major economical fruit trees in Taiwan. In 2015, the loss in crop production and value of the fruit trees (included: pears, mangos, persimmons, grapes, papayas, Tankans, sugar apples, Wentan pomelos, wax apples, pineapples, guavas, and litchis) caused by natural disasters reached 100,000 m.t. and 3.7 billion NT$. This showed the importance of the work on disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as relating strategy evaluation. This project focused on the major economical fruit trees, and planned to collect and organize the disasters information, to establish a database of natural disasters of the fruit trees. The project also aimed to analyze the relation between weather and damage severity, test the system of real-time weather monitoring system, establish the disaster preventing culture calendar, and collect the stress physiological indices. Last year we had established the disaster database, including heavy rain, typhoon, chilling, continuous rain, and other environmental stresses of the fruit trees. We also completed the relation analysis between wind speed of typhoon and damage severity of several fruit trees. However, the relation was poor which might because of that typhoon make damage on fruit trees by several factors combining with the wind speed. The real-time orchard weather monitoring system had set up this year, as well as the on-line connection and program settings, and is going to start its duty in the following year. Through the project last year, we also complete the draft edition of the disaster preventing culture calendars of the major economical fruit trees, and also the stress physiological indices of several fruit trees. In the project this year, our researches will focus on the completion of the correlation analysis between wind speed and damage severity of the remaining fruit trees, and test the correlation by using other weather factors and the damage severity. The real-time orchard weather monitoring system will be utilized to do research on the relation of crop damage and orchard micro climate. The disaster preventing culture calendars and the stress physiological indices will continue editing and correcting.We hope that this project may provide effective information and abundant references on disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery for the growers, researchers, and agricultural extension personnel. Establish the training system of agro-meteorologist Due to the project demand, three work will be done in this project: 1. Design an agro-meteorologist two level training course. 2. Hold the training course, and publish the teaching materials 3. Hold a symposium every year. In 2016, a 50 trainees/day first level training course and a workshop will be done, to enhance to quality of agro-meteorology study and investigation.
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